Estimating the proportion of Americans ever experiencing poverty during their elderly years.

OBJECTIVES This study estimates the age-specific and cumulative proportions of American adults who will experience poverty at some point during their elderly years. These life-span proportions represent a substantially different approach to understanding poverty than calculating either yearly cross-sectional rates or poverty spell durations. METHODS Our estimations are derived through a series of life tables built upon 25 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). RESULTS The analyses indicate that 40% of America's elderly population will experience a year below the poverty line at some point between the ages of 60 and 90, and 48% of elders will experience poverty at the 125% level. The data further reveal that this life-span risk of poverty has remained relatively stable throughout the period of data collection (1968-1992). Finally, the likelihood of elderly Americans ever encountering a year below the poverty line increases dramatically for those who are Black, not married, and/or who have less than 12 years of education. DISCUSSION Our results suggest that in spite of relatively low cross-sectional rates of elderly poverty in America, the likelihood of impoverishment at some point during the later years of life remains a very real possibility.